Transport Market Monitor Edition: 10 (February 2012)

| Point of View

Challenging time for the transport market as prices continue to decrease

This is the tenth edition of the Transport Market Monitor. It outlines the developments in European road transport rates and includes figures for the fourth quarter of 2011.

  • The price index decreased by 0.6% in Q4 2011 (index 100.6), compared to the price index in Q3 2011 (index 101.2).
  • Compared to the index level of the previous year, Q4 2010 (index 102.1), the price index decreased by 1.5%. This confirms the development we observed in the previous quarter, when transport prices were lower than a year earlier.
  • In previous years we saw a pattern of increasing prices after a decrease in Q1. This year, prices decreased in Q2, Q3 and Q4, which is remarkable.
  • The diesel index increased by 2.0% in Q4 2011, compared to Q3 2011. This is noteworthy since the transport price index decreased.
  • The capacity index increased by 11.0% in Q4 2011 (index 84.9), compared to Q3 2011 (index 76.5).
  • The last months of 2011, in particular, show a significant cool down in the transport market, with lower prices and a higher capacity index. The trend of higher prices and a lower capacity index year-on-year has not been observed since May 2011. The large increase in capacity and the decrease in rates between consecutive months shows the uncertainty that market players face. The transport market is not as tight as before, which has had consequences on rates.
  • Both market dynamics and the expected cost increase of transportation emphasize the need to monitor transport price developments very closely, to lower the risk of any unexpected negative impact on company results.

These are the conclusions of the Transport Market Monitor by TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting, a quarterly publication, which aims to track transport market dynamics.